Term Premium Reprices

29%its chance, of the story’s futures

−2.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Investors extrapolate the record borrowing week into a larger term-premium problem, especially with the deficit near $1.8 trillion and net interest above $1 trillion. The market demands higher compensation for duration risk before the next refunding cycle.

What it moves

Technology−2.7%
Consumer Cyclicals−2.2%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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