State-Led Stabilization

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.8%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Beijing is likely to lean against disorderly selling because the AI-infrastructure plan is politically important and the STAR board is a key financing venue for domestic chip and AI firms. The most probable version is targeted support rather than a full rescue of inflated valuations.

What it moves

Technology+1.6%
Finance+0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
Bitcoin▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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