Overt Military Escalation

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.8%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Netanyahu converts the election mandate and the recent nuclear-program claim into preparations for direct military action. This is less likely than signaling or covert pressure, but the 2024-2026 pattern of direct Israel-Iran exchanges makes it a credible tail scenario.

What it moves

Energy+3.0%
Industrials+2.8%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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