Possible scenario
Limited Shadow Campaign
30%
−0.8%
Israel interprets Netanyahu’s renewed mandate as authorization for a contained intelligence and cyber campaign against Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure. This avoids an openly acknowledged air war but still raises regional risk, especially around energy and defense assets.
What it moves
- Energy+1.4%
- Industrials+1.2%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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