Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps published video Tuesday from the perspective of an IRGC Aerospace Force surface to air missile that Tehran says intercepted and destroyed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the eastern Strait of Hormuz. The footage, which includes thermal targeting views near Qeshm Island, follows Monday’s IRGC announcement that it shot down its 55th MQ-9 alongside 14 destroyed MQ-1 drones.
If this story plays out
Scenarios
During the same Monday engagements, when witnesses reported numerous explosions across Qeshm Island, the IRGC claimed its Aerospace Force electronic warfare systems grounded and seized two American MQM-170 reconnaissance and decoy drones south of the island. Iranian media said the captures brought Tehran’s tally of recovered MQM-170C Outlaw aircraft to four, though pro-Iranian channels published no evidence of those seizures and the US military did not immediately confirm Monday’s losses.
US Central Command previously denied an Oct 29 IRGC claim that its naval electronic warfare unit hijacked an MQM-170 west of the Strait of Hormuz and landed it intact to extract data on coastal air defense mapping. “In the past weeks and months, the IRGC has repeatedly lied out of desperation, and today is no different,” CENTCOM spokesperson Tim Hawkins told the Associated Press at the time.
Tilt chat provides reliable, tailored insights, alerts, and automations.
Portfolio
If this story plays out
−8.0%
Portfolio
−0.5%
Nov 2 close
Story, if it plays out
87%−7.5%
Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.
13%−12.8%
A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.
2%+4.3%
Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.
Portfolio
Portfolio
−0.5%
Nov 2 close
Prediction markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Iran charges Hormuz fees by…
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30
The crowd, on a related question
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by
7%
13%