Sustained Refinery Campaign

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Ukraine continues using long-range drones against Russian refinery capacity after ending the Trump-sought pause. Kyiv judges that fuel shortages and refinery downtime are a more effective pressure point than preserving U.S. political goodwill.

What it moves

Energy+1.1%
Industrials+0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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