Restraint Deal Returns

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington renews pressure on Kyiv to limit strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, tying cooperation to intelligence sharing or future weapons packages. Ukraine accepts some restraint to avoid a rupture with the Trump administration.

What it moves

Energy−0.4%
Market volatility▼ down
Oil prices▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?