Ceasefire Deal Holds

Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, and Iran convert the reported $1B offer into a temporary but functioning ceasefire. This is the single most likely path because all parties have incentives to pause costs, test Iranian guarantees, and avoid a direct Saudi-Iran escalation after recent Houthi advances.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.