Possible scenario
Transition Process Frays
15%
−0.3%
The post-Maduro settlement proves more fragile than expected, with loyalist factions, courts or security forces challenging the U.S.-backed electoral route. This does not necessarily restore Maduro-era rule, but it raises the risk of a prolonged institutional struggle.
What it moves
- Energy+0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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