Possible scenario
Timetable Faces Resistance
25%
−0.3%
Elements of the Venezuelan transition authority, election bureaucracy or security establishment resist a U.S.-backed timetable. They argue that institutions must be rebuilt before a national vote, delaying the path to recognized elections.
What it moves
- Energy+0.2%
- Market volatility
- Oil prices
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.