• 

  40%+0.2%

  Election Timetable Advances

  U.S. diplomacy helps convert the post-Maduro transition into a formal presidential election calendar for 2027. María Corina Machado and the main opposition blocs accept the timetable as the most credible path to international recognition and sanctions relief.

  Energy −0.1%

• 

  25%−0.3%

  Timetable Faces Resistance

  Elements of the Venezuelan transition authority, election bureaucracy or security establishment resist a U.S.-backed timetable. They argue that institutions must be rebuilt before a national vote, delaying the path to recognized elections.

  Energy +0.2%

• 

  20%+0.1%

  Machado Consolidates Opposition

  Machado’s safe return allows her to rebuild a national campaign structure and unify opposition parties before a 2027 vote. Her leverage rises in negotiations with the transition authorities and foreign governments.

• 

  15%−0.3%

  Transition Process Frays

  The post-Maduro settlement proves more fragile than expected, with loyalist factions, courts or security forces challenging the U.S.-backed electoral route. This does not necessarily restore Maduro-era rule, but it raises the risk of a prolonged institutional struggle.

  Energy +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.