Institutional Containment

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is a managed compromise in which the Shin Bet, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, and relevant Knesset oversight bodies define limits for the foreign election probe. Chief Zini remains in place, but investigators receive procedural protections to continue examining Qatar-linked funding and limited Iran-Pakistan leads.

What it moves

Finance+0.1%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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