The candidates are vying for the seat of retiring Senator Joni Ernst in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Recent polling remains mixed, with a Rasmussen Reports survey from Sept. 28 to Sept. 30 placing Turek ahead 47% to 43%, while a Sept. 30 Quantus Insights poll favored Hinson 48.5% to 46.6% among lean voters. Hinson's campaign expects a boost from a $15B steel plant announcement and planned visits from Donald Trump and JD Vance.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Hinson Regains 56% Odds for 6th GOP Iowa Senate Win
US Politics11 days ago
Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson 48% to 44% among likely voters in a Suffolk poll conducted Oct. 1 to Oct. 4. This result reverses an August survey from the same firm that showed Hinson with a 4 percentage point lead. Despite Turek's lead in the latest poll, Polymarket has shifted win odds back in favor of the Republican, assigning Hinson a 56% chance of victory for the election on Nov. 3.
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