Possible scenario
Hinson Wins Decisively
20% Chance
Hinson expands her lead in the final weeks and wins by a clearer margin than late polling implies. This outcome would reinforce Iowa's Republican federal trend and strengthen expectations of a GOP Senate advantage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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