Possible scenario
Turek Pulls Upset
24% Chance
Josh Turek outperforms late polling and captures the open seat created by Joni Ernst's retirement. The result would end the GOP's Iowa Senate streak and materially improve Democratic hopes of limiting or denying a Republican Senate majority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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