Assertive Policy Turn

23%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Democrats interpret the statewide sweep and House win as a mandate for more aggressive policy changes. This path would create larger sector-specific effects, especially for oil and gas, utilities, healthcare providers and companies dependent on state incentives.

What it moves

Energy−0.7%
Non-Energy Materials−0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Oil prices▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?