Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, and the state gave Donald Trump a 13 point margin in 2024. Other recent data varies: a Rasmussen Reports poll from Sept. 28-30 put Turek ahead 47% to 43%, while a Sept. 30 Quantus Insights poll gave Hinson a lead of 48.5% to 46.6% among lean voters. The candidates are competing for the seat vacated by retiring Senator Joni Ernst in the election on Nov. 3.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Story
Josh Turek Hits 47% Win Odds on Polymarket for First Possible Dem Win Since 2008
US Politics15 days ago
A shift in prediction market probabilities suggests the Democratic candidate for Iowa's open Senate seat has closed the gap with his opponent. Polymarket now assigns Josh Turek a 47% chance of victory, while Kalshi estimates Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson has a 56% probability of winning. This divide is echoed in recent surveys, including an Oct. 3 NYT/Sienna poll that shows Hinson with a 1 point lead, 48% to 47% among 504 likely voters.
Looking for more context or analysis?
Tilt chat provides reliable, tailored insights, alerts, and automations.