Possible scenario
Democratic Overperformance
13% Chance
Turek's 47% market odds prove too low because Democratic registration gains and turnout in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and college counties are stronger than expected. This scenario signals broader Democratic strength in the Midwest and could carry larger Senate-control implications.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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