Possible scenario
Republican Narrow Hold
41% Chance
Ashley Hinson remains the slight favorite despite Josh Turek's improved polling and 47% Polymarket odds. Iowa's recent Republican lean, Ernst's retirement dynamics, and GOP turnout infrastructure keep the seat narrowly in Republican hands.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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