Possible scenario
Turek Narrow Flip
36% Chance
Turek converts his polling edge and improved Democratic voter-growth numbers into a narrow statewide win. This would be a major symbolic break from Iowa's recent red shift, but the market effect depends heavily on whether the seat changes Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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