Swap market data shows the probability of a Bank of Canada rate increase in October fell to 27% from 40% following the release of the jobs report on Oct. 9. Traders have since reduced expectations for a rate hike before the end of the year. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings increased 2.3% year over year from 2.0%, a figure that may complicate the central bank's outlook for controlling inflation.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Canada's 68,300 Job Loss Cuts October Rate Hike Odds to 27%
Global Markets12 days ago
Employment levels across the Canadian economy dropped unexpectedly in September, continuing a downward trend in hiring. The country lost 68,300 positions, far below the 10,000 gain forecast by analysts and following a decline of 41,700 in August. This contraction pushed the unemployment rate up to 6.5% from 6.4%, while the labor force participation rate dipped to 64.8%. The services sector faced the heaviest losses, shedding 52,300 jobs.
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