Possible scenario
October Hold Prevails
50% Chance
The Bank of Canada most likely leaves rates unchanged at its October decision as the 68,300 job loss and 6.5% unemployment rate reinforce downside growth risks. Inflation remains above target, so policymakers avoid declaring victory and keep guidance data-dependent.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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