Possible scenario
Inflation Forces Hike
27% Chance
Despite the weak jobs report, the Bank of Canada could still hike if CPI, shelter costs, or wage growth show renewed persistence. Because markets have reduced hike odds to 27%, an actual hike would be a modest hawkish surprise.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Technology -0.9%
- Finance -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.