Possible scenario
Dovish Pivot Emerges
15% Chance
The labor deterioration could become the dominant policy signal if additional Canadian data confirm weaker household demand and hiring. In this scenario, the BoC moves beyond a simple pause and begins steering markets away from further hikes.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Utilities +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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