Decision Desk HQ maintains a polling average that puts Talarico ahead by 4.1% and lists him as a 57% favorite to win the U.S. Senate seat. Talarico has led in 25 of 30 polls to date, a trend that exceeds that of Beto O'Rourke, who led in only one poll through September in 2018. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Ken Paxton Leads James Talarico in Internal GOP Senate Poll
US Politics21 days ago
A Pulse Decision Science survey of likely voters conducted from Sept. 24 to Sept. 27 puts Republican support at 48% and Democratic support at 45% in Texas. This internal GOP poll shows Ken Paxton with a 3 percentage point lead over Democrat James Talarico, contrasting with previous public data that has favored the Democratic challenger.
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