Possible scenario
Talarico Upset Win
34% Chance
The GOP internal poll proves to be an optimistic snapshot rather than a durable lead. Talarico's fundraising advantage, heavy advertising, and Paxton's strained relationship with parts of the Texas GOP allow Democrats to flip the seat narrowly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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