Possible scenario
Paxton Narrow Win
44% Chance
Ken Paxton converts the internal GOP poll into a modest but durable advantage, aided by partisan consolidation and Donald Trump's endorsement. James Talarico remains competitive because of fundraising strength and Paxton's liabilities, but the race ends with a narrow Republican hold.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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