Prediction markets continue to favor Bolsonaro, with Polymarket pricing his victory at 76% and Kalshi at 75%. However, Bolsonaro's odds on Kalshi fell 12 percentage points over the last 10 days. The narrowing race has prompted investors to increase hedges, resulting in a surge in option premiums and hedging costs as the vote approaches.
Saturday, October 24, 2026
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Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula Tied in Latest Brazil Runoff Polls
World20 hours ago
A Datafolha poll placed right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro at 47% and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 46% ahead of Brazil's Oct. 25 presidential runoff. A separate Vox Brasil survey put Lula at 51% of valid votes against 49% for Bolsonaro, a result the firm described as a statistical tie within its 2.15 percentage point margin of error. Flávio Bolsonaro previously topped the first round of voting with 47.03% of the valid votes to Lula's 45.16%.
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