Possible scenario
Delayed Contested Count
18% Chance
The result is so close that neither camp concedes on election night and legal teams focus on turnout, spoiled ballots, and machine audit logs. Brazil's institutions are likely to resolve the dispute, but the immediate reaction is risk-off because the 2022-2026 Bolsonaro legacy keeps contestation risks elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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