Possible scenario
Lula Narrow Reelection
35% Chance
Lula edges out Flávio Bolsonaro through higher turnout in the Northeast, late tactical voting by centrists, and incumbency advantages. The result would be unsurprising given the tied polls, but markets may initially mark down state-linked equities on policy-intervention concerns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Utilities -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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