Possible scenario
Flávio Narrow Victory
37% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly defeats President Lula after undecided and anti-PT voters consolidate late. The prior 53-47 poll lead and the current tie make this a plausible toss-up outcome, especially if turnout among conservative voters holds up.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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