Talks Break Down

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.8%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Putin may continue to reject any ceasefire that freezes Russia short of its stated objectives, leaving the Nordic channel unable to move beyond messaging. Trump could then turn back to sanctions threats and accelerated weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals−0.8%
Energy+0.6%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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