Possible scenario
Limited Ceasefire Progress
25%
+1.2%
A partial agreement becomes possible if Trump uses the promised Putin meeting to extract a narrow concession while Kyiv and European governments accept a verifiable, limited pause. This is less likely than procedural talks, but the Nordic engagement suggests both sides are testing off-ramps.
What it moves
- Consumer Cyclicals+1.5%
- Energy−1.2%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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