Possible scenario

Institutional Calming Rebound

38%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.8%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Lula accepts that the post-election rout threatens governability and moves quickly to reassure Congress, the central bank and investors. Fernando Haddad, Geraldo Alckmin and congressional leaders signal a negotiated fiscal package rather than a confrontation with markets.

What it moves

Finance+1.2%
Non-Energy Materials+0.9%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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