Possible scenario

Election Contest Escalates

22%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Flavio Bolsonaro’s camp challenges the runoff result, extending uncertainty after a polarizing campaign. Courts are likely to uphold the result, but street mobilization and institutional tension could prolong the risk premium on Brazilian assets.

What it moves

Energy−0.4%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals−0.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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