Possible scenario

Emergency Market Backstop

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.9%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The selloff becomes disorderly enough that Brazilian authorities deploy liquidity measures, FX swaps or extraordinary Treasury operations. The near-term effect depends on whether investors view the action as a credible firewall or as evidence of a deeper currency crisis.

What it moves

Finance−1.0%
Energy−0.9%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?