Narrow Criminal Probe

28%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Law-enforcement bodies separate the alleged foreign funding trail from the validity of the election. The result stands, but police, Shin Bet, or campaign-finance regulators investigate whether intermediaries linked to Qatar violated Israeli election or foreign-agent rules.

What it moves

Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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