Ocean temperatures of 84 to 87 degrees are providing the fuel for intensification, although a strong subtropical jet stream may introduce wind shear and dry air to weaken the system before landfall. While Google and European models depict an upper-air disturbance pushing the storm northeast, some projections show a westward track that would increase the risk for Tamaulipas or Veracruz in Mexico.
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
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NHC Raises Gulf Storm Development Odds to 70% Near Refineries
Commodities15 days ago
Atmospheric models are tracking a cluster of thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche that could organize into a named hurricane by early next week. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 70% chance that a tropical system, likely to be named Isaias, will develop between Oct 7 and Oct 10. Simulations suggest a Category 1-2 hurricane may meander through the northern Gulf, posing a risk to coastal areas from New Orleans to Pensacola and threatening to disrupt oil refining operations in Pascagoula, Mississippi, and along the Mississippi River.
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