Possible scenario
Refinery Disruption
27% Chance
The system becomes a stronger tropical storm or low-end hurricane and moves close enough to key refining centers to force precautionary shutdowns. The market prices a short-lived but visible hit to Gulf Coast fuel supply, especially if port traffic or power reliability is affected.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Tickers
- VLO-2.1%
- -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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