Possible scenario
Storm Fails
23% Chance
Upper-level wind shear, dry air, or land interaction prevents the Gulf disturbance from consolidating. Given the unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic season so far, forecasters could quickly downgrade the threat if organization stalls.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Tickers
- VLO+0.7%
- MPC+0.7%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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