Possible scenario

Entry Complications

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The cancellation of Flávio’s passports creates immediate procedural uncertainty when the aircraft lands or transits. US and Brazilian officials may dispute whether he can lawfully enter, be detained, or be moved to a third country.

What it moves

Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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