Possible scenario

Crisis Escalates

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Flávio’s asylum attempt could become a rallying point for Bolsonaro supporters who already contest Lula’s 2026 victory. The risk is not a market-wide crisis, but a sharper Brazilian political confrontation with diplomatic spillovers.

What it moves

Non-Energy Materials−0.3%
Finance−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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