Russian Retaliation Cycle

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Moscow responds with intensified missile, drone, cyber, or infrastructure strikes against Ukraine and potentially its support networks. The likely market effect is moderate unless retaliation creates an incident involving NATO territory.

What it moves

Industrials+1.2%
Energy+0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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