• 

  42%

  0.0%

  Compact Takes Effect

  The most likely path is that newly Democratic legislatures enact the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and member states prepare to use it in 2028. Litigation begins quickly, but courts allow implementation planning to continue while the cases proceed.

• 

  28%

  −0.2%

  Courts Block Compact

  Republican attorneys general and legislatures challenge the compact under the Constitution’s Compact Clause, Electors Clause, and Guarantee Clause. A federal court or the Supreme Court could delay or invalidate implementation before the 2028 election calendar locks in.

  Consumer Cyclicals −0.3% · Technology −0.2% · Finance −0.1%

• 

  18%

  −0.6%

  Federal Backlash Builds

  Republican members of Congress and GOP-led states move to counter the compact through hearings, federal legislation, and pressure on state election officials. This path does not immediately resolve legality but raises the salience of election-administration conflict.

  Technology −0.7% · Finance −0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3%

• 

  12%

  +0.1%

  States Reconsider Membership

  After the compact crosses 270 electoral votes, opponents focus on state-level repeal campaigns, ballot measures, and legislative reversals. The threshold remains fragile if recently flipped chambers or governorships prove temporary.

  Finance +0.1% · Technology +0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.