Compact Takes Effect

its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is that newly Democratic legislatures enact the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and member states prepare to use it in 2028. Litigation begins quickly, but courts allow implementation planning to continue while the cases proceed.

What it moves

10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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