Possible scenario
Saudi retaliation
25% Chance
Riyadh rejects renewed truce calls and responds with targeted strikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen. This would fit the pattern of escalation after repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and the reported fatalities in Riyadh.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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