Possible scenario
Contained airport disruption
45% Chance
Saudi authorities keep Riyadh airport closed long enough to clear debris, repair fuel infrastructure, and tighten air defenses, but no immediate follow-on strike occurs. This is the most likely path because both Riyadh and the Houthis may avoid an uncontrolled escalation while testing each other's resolve.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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