Possible scenario
Diplomatic de-escalation
18% Chance
Omani and UN channels reopen after the deadly strike, with both sides exploring a narrow halt to attacks on civilian airports and shipping. This is plausible because repeated attacks on Riyadh create pressure for Saudi security guarantees while the Houthis may seek leverage rather than open-ended escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Energy -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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