• 

  

  40%−2.4%

  Tech Selloff Extends

  The most likely near-term path is another leg lower led by semiconductors, AI hardware suppliers, and high-duration technology shares. The selloff follows repeated reversals in the Nikkei and KOSPI since mid-October, with higher global yields and doubts about AI spending returns keeping positioning fragile.

  Technology −4.0% · Industrials −2.2% · Finance −1.7%

• 

  

  25%+1.7%

  Dip Buyers Return

  A partial rebound is plausible because the latest plunge follows a volatile pattern of sharp losses and quick recoveries, including the late-October KOSPI rally on AI optimism. Bargain-hunting by domestic institutions and stabilization in US technology futures could support a short-covering bounce.

  Technology +2.8% · Industrials +1.4% · Finance +1.3%

• 

  

  20%−1.1%

  Rotation Replaces Panic

  The broad index losses may give way to sector rotation rather than a deeper market break. Investors trim expensive AI and semiconductor positions while shifting toward banks, insurers, utilities, and consumer staples that benefit from higher rates or defensive demand.

  Technology −2.7% · Finance +1.0% · Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.9%

• 

  

  15%−2.9%

  Funding Stress Escalates

  A less likely but important downside scenario is that equity losses trigger wider funding stress, especially with US 10-year yields above 5% and regional investors facing mark-to-market losses. This would turn a stock-market correction into a broader risk-asset event across credit, FX, and crypto.

  Technology −4.3% · Finance −3.8% · Industrials −1.7%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.