• 

  42%−1.6%

  Selloff Extends

  The most likely path is another 1-2 trading days of pressure as investors continue reducing Asia equity exposure after the BOJ and Fed rate increases. Higher discount rates weigh most on technology, cyclicals, exporters and leveraged financial assets.

  Technology −2.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.8% · Industrials −1.6%

• 

  26%−0.1%

  Markets Stabilize

  Asian equities find a temporary floor after recent losses as investors judge the futures decline as an extension of already priced-in rate fears. Volatility remains elevated, but cash equity selling slows and markets trade sideways.

  Technology −0.4% · Finance +0.3% · Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%

• 

  20%+1.5%

  Relief Rebound

  A short-covering rebound develops if U.S. yields stop rising and investors decide the recent Asia selloff has become technically stretched. The bounce is plausible because the Nikkei has already absorbed several consecutive negative sessions.

  Technology +2.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.5% · Industrials +1.3%

• 

  12%−2.7%

  Rates Shock Escalates

  A lower-probability but material downside scenario occurs if global bond yields jump again or officials reinforce a higher-for-longer message. That would turn the Nikkei futures decline into a broader cross-asset tightening shock.

  Technology −4.0% · Consumer Cyclicals −3.2% · Industrials −2.9%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.